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Norway – France Prediction and Betting Tips

Norway national football team logo
Norway
W W D W D
vs
15:00
26 Jun · Fri
France national football team logo
France
W W W L W
Kick-off: 15:00 local (26 Jun) · 19:00 UTC Venue: Gillette Stadium Referee: M. Oliver
Top forecast + 4 supporting tips
5 picks
Top Pick
Total:Over: 2.5 Over 2.5 goals 60% confidence
1.60odds

A must-win Norway with Haaland in form against a free-scoring France points to an open decider beyond 2.5 goals.

Back this tip
X2 62%
France or draw
2.87 odds
Total Team 2 Over: 1.5 60%
France over 1.5 goals
1.50 odds
Total Team 1 Over: 0.5 66%
Norway to score
1.40 odds
Total:Over: 1.5 82%
Over 1.5 goals
1.18 odds
Norway and France meet at Gillette Stadium in a Group I finale to decide top spot, both already safely through to the Round of 32, with the two group games kicking off together.

France top and in control

France lead Group I on six points with a goal difference of plus five after a 3-1 win over Senegal and a 3-0 defeat of Iraq, the latter lit up by Kylian Mbappé's record-equalling brace that drew him level with Miroslav Klose. A draw is all Didier Deschamps' side need to confirm first place and the kinder knockout route that tends to come with it. With qualification already secure, Deschamps may rotate and protect key men — though even a changed France carry formidable attacking quality.

Norway must win to top the group

Norway also reached the knockouts with maximum points, beating Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, and sit just behind France on goal difference alone. Only a victory will lift Ståle Solbakken's side above them, which means taking the game to the favourites rather than settling for the point that would not be enough. In Erling Haaland — now Norway's all-time World Cup scorer, and level with Mbappé on four goals at this tournament — they have a forward in the form of his life and a genuine matchwinner.

Our forecast: goals in a heavyweight decider

The headline writes itself — Haaland against Mbappé, four goals apiece, with first place on the line. With Norway forced to chase and two elite attacks on show, our forecast leans toward goals: the total over 2.5 reads as the value angle. Around it, France to avoid defeat reflects their edge and lower stakes, France over 1.5 fits their firepower, and Norway are backed to score in front of their own fans.

Match Probability Engine

Pre-match analysis
NorwayDrawFrance
Norway
Home win
19%
Draw
No bet
22%
France
Away win
59%
Norway — recent matches
23 Jun 2026 Senegal 3 — 2 W
16 Jun 2026 Iraq 4 — 1 W
07 Jun 2026 Morocco 1 — 1 D
01 Jun 2026 Sweden 3 — 1 W
31 Mar 2026 Switzerland 0 — 0 D
France — recent matches
22 Jun 2026 Iraq 3 — 0 W
16 Jun 2026 Senegal 3 — 1 W
08 Jun 2026 Northern Ireland 3 — 1 W
04 Jun 2026 Ivory Coast 1 — 2 L
29 Mar 2026 Colombia 3 — 1 W

Key Players

Norway
Erling Haaland ST Man City · 35+ caps · 35 G
Martin Ødegaard AM Arsenal · 45+ caps · Captain
Alexander Sørloth ST Atlético · 50+ caps · 14 G
Antonio Nusa LW Leipzig · 15+ caps
France
Kylian Mbappé ST Real Madrid · 85+ caps · 51 G · Captain
Antoine Griezmann AM Atlético · 135+ caps · 44 G
Aurélien Tchouaméni CDM Real Madrid · 35+ caps
Ousmane Dembélé RW PSG · 50+ caps · 6 G
William Saliba CB Arsenal · 20+ caps

Injuries

Norway
None reported
France
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Capacity: 65,000
Open-air New England venue; June conditions are usually moderate, taking heat largely out of the equation.
Weather: Mid-June Foxborough: mild, ~20–25°C.

Suspensions

Norway
None reported
France
None reported

Expected Lineups

Pending
⏳

Predicted lineups will be confirmed closer to kickoff.

Check back 1–2 days before the match.

Group Standings

# Team MP W D L GD Pts
1 France ★ 2 2 0 0 +5 6
2 Norway ★ 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 Senegal 2 0 0 2 -3 0
4 Iraq 2 0 0 2 -6 0

Odds

Norway vs France
40 winning forecasts · 67% accuracy
Bookmaker 1 X 2
Pin Up AI’s choice Best odds 5.30 4.89 1.65 Bet now
William Hill 4.60 4.40 1.57 Bet now
Bet365 5.00 4.75 1.55 Bet now
Marathonbet 5.20 4.80 1.60 Bet now
Unibet 5.10 4.70 1.55 Bet now
Betfair 5.00 4.60 1.57 Bet now
BetVictor 5.25 4.40 1.55 Bet now
Pinnacle 5.00 4.84 1.60 Bet now

Other Group I matches

MD1
France3–1SenegalLANDEDIraq1–4NorwayLANDED
MD2
France3–0IraqLANDEDNorway3–2SenegalLANDED
MD3
SenegalvIraqJun 26 · 19:00 UTC

Team’s other matches

Norway
Iraq1–4NorwayLANDEDNorway3–2SenegalLANDED
France
France3–1SenegalLANDEDFrance3–0IraqLANDED

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