04 Jul · Sat · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Our top forecastFrance or draw
✓ CORRECT
Mbappe penalty settles France's toughest test
France beat a feisty Paraguay 1-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, a Kylian Mbappe penalty deciding a tight Round of 16 tie. Paraguay, conquerors of Germany, made France work hard, but the favourites' quality told to send them into the quarter-finals.
How it unfolded: a penalty decides it
In a cagey, physical game, France won a VAR-awarded penalty that Paraguay disputed. Mbappe converted coolly for the winner, and France defended resolutely to protect the lead as Paraguay pushed late.
Context: controversy and character
Not a vintage France display, but a resilient one, ground out on a controversial night. Paraguay's giant-killing run ends with pride intact.
The next step: a 2022 rematch with Morocco
France advance to a quarter-final with Morocco — a rematch of the 2022 semi-final France won 2-0. Our forecast of France to avoid defeat landed in a hard-fought 1-0 win.
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World
Paraguay – France Prediction and Betting Tips
Paraguay
DDWLW
vs
21:00
04 Jul · Sat
France
WWWWW
Kick-off: 21:00 local (4 Jul) · 21:00 UTCVenue: Lincoln Financial Field, PhiladelphiaReferee: Ilgiz Tantashev, Uzbekistan
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks Top Pick
X2France or draw70% confidence
1.18odds
France's quality and form make them heavy favourites, needing only to avoid a 90-minute defeat to reach extra time; Paraguay's giant-killing run keeps it live, so the double chance is the measured play.
Back this tip
Win 262%
France to win
1.19 odds
Total Team 2 Over: 1.558%
France over 1.5 goals
1.31 odds
Total:Under: 2.548%
Under 2.5 goals
2.19 odds
This Round of 16 tie at Lincoln Financial Field brings together the tournament's most improbable survivors and the favourites. Paraguay, under Gustavo Alfaro, reached the last 16 as a best third-placed team and then knocked out Germany on penalties — a fairytale built on organisation and nerve. France, under Didier Deschamps, arrive in devastating form after a record-breaking R32 rout, their attack among the most feared in the competition. Expect defiance against firepower: Paraguay's resilience versus France's quality. With a quarter-final place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, France are heavy favourites. Our forecast favours France to avoid defeat, though Paraguay have proven they can spring a surprise.
Paraguay — recent matches
29 Jun 2026Germany1 — 1D
26 Jun 2026Australia0 — 0D
20 Jun 2026Türkiye1 — 0W
13 Jun 2026USA1 — 4L
05 Jun 2026Nicaragua4 — 0W
France — recent matches
30 Jun 2026Sweden3 — 0W
26 Jun 2026Norway4 — 1W
22 Jun 2026Iraq3 — 0W
16 Jun 2026Senegal3 — 1W
08 Jun 2026Northern Ireland3 — 1W
02.06.2017FrancevsParaguay5 — 0
Key Players
Paraguay
Antonio SanabriaSTCremonese · 50+ caps · Captain
Miguel AlmirónAMNewcastle · 45+ caps
Julio EncisoAMIpswich · 15+ caps
Omar AldereteCBGetafe · 30+ caps
France
Kylian MbappéSTReal Madrid · 85+ caps · 51 G · Captain
Antoine GriezmannAMAtlético · 135+ caps · 44 G
Aurélien TchouaméniCDMReal Madrid · 35+ caps
Ousmane DembéléRWPSG · 50+ caps · 6 G
William SalibaCBArsenal · 20+ caps
Injuries
Paraguay
None reported
France
None reported
Venue · Context
Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Capacity: 69,000
Open-air Philadelphia venue; mid-June brings warm, humid air that can slow the tempo in later stages.
Paraguay
0–1
France
