Full-time

USA 4–1

Paraguay

12 Jun · Fri · SoFi Stadium

Our top forecastParaguay under 1.5 goals

✓ CORRECT

Match summary

USA beat Paraguay 4-1 in their Group D opener at SoFi Stadium. Damián Bobadilla put through his own net in the 7th minute to hand the hosts an early lead. Folarin Balogun then bagged a brace, scoring in the 31st minute and again in first-half stoppage time (45+5'). Paraguay pulled one back through Mauricio on 73 minutes, but Giovanni Reyna sealed the win deep in stoppage time (90+8'). The result puts USA top of Group D ahead of Australia vs Türkiye on 14 June. Our top forecast — Paraguay under 1.5 goals — landed, with the visitors held to a single goal.

Group D standings

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	USA	1	1	0	+3	3
2	Australia	0	0	0	0	0
3	Türkiye	0	0	0	0	0
4	Paraguay	1	0	1	-3	0

USA: next match →Paraguay: next match →

What we predicted before the match

🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

USA – Paraguay Prediction and Betting Tips

USA

L W L L

18:00

12 Jun · Fri

Paraguay

W L W W D

Kick-off: 18:00 local (12 Jun) · 01:00 UTC Venue: SoFi Stadium Referee: Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)

Top forecast + 4 supporting tips

5 picks

Top Pick

Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 Paraguay under 1.5 goals 60% confidence

2.40odds

Paraguay scored one or fewer in four of their last five matches (1.0 average), a blunt attack against opponents they have struggled to break down.

Back this tip

1X 60%

USA or draw

3.42 odds

Total:Under: 3.0 66%

Under 3.0 goals

1.74 odds

Total Team 1 Over: 0.5 74%

USA over 0.5 goals

1.42 odds

Total:Over: 1.5 64%

Over 1.5 goals

3.78 odds

Co-hosts the United States open their campaign against a familiar foe in Paraguay, a side they edged just months ago. Home support and momentum sit with the Americans, but Paraguay's pragmatic streak makes them an uncomfortable first assignment. With the group's complexion shaped from the outset, both teams will weigh ambition against the cost of an early defeat.

United States dangerous but leaky

The United States arrive with goals at both ends: a 3-2 win over Senegal, a 0-2 loss to Portugal, a 2-5 defeat to Belgium, a 5-1 win over Uruguay and a 2-1 victory against Paraguay. Those games average 2.4 scored and 2.2 conceded, a profile that promises entertainment but exposes defensive lapses. Defender Chris Richards is a doubt with an ankle problem, while Ricardo Pepi has returned to fitness. Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie drive a team that scores but concedes.

Paraguay compact and low-scoring

Paraguay lean on structure under Gustavo Alfaro, with a 1-2 loss to Morocco, a 1-0 win over Greece, a 2-1 victory against Mexico, a 1-2 defeat to the United States and a 0-2 loss to South Korea. Their averages are modest at 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded. No suspensions or major injuries were confirmed for the opener. Captain Gustavo Gomez anchors the defence, with Miguel Almiron and Diego Gomez carrying the limited attacking threat.

Prediction: Paraguay's blunt attack is the key

The United States lead the head-to-head, winning their most recent meeting 2-1, and that familiarity matters. The USA versus Paraguay prediction focuses on Paraguay's lack of goals rather than the outright result: they have scored one or fewer in four of their last five, so Paraguay under 1.5 goals offers the value against a side that, for all its defensive flaws, still creates. Around it, a USA-or-draw double chance fits home advantage, the total staying under 3.0 reflects Paraguay's caution, the United States look good to score over 0.5, and the game passing over 1.5 suits the American tempo.

Match Probability Engine

Pre-match analysis

49% 29% 22%

USADrawParaguay

USA

Home win

49%

Draw

No bet

29%

Paraguay

Away win

22%

USA — recent matches

06 Jun 2026 Germany 1 — 2 L

31 May 2026 Senegal 3 — 2 W

31 Mar 2026 Portugal 0 — 2 L

28 Mar 2026 Belgium 2 — 5 L

Limited recent international matches

Paraguay — recent matches

05 Jun 2026 Nicaragua 4 — 0 W

31 Mar 2026 Morocco 1 — 2 L

27 Mar 2026 Greece 1 — 0 W

09 Sep 2025 Peru 1 — 0 W

04 Sep 2025 Ecuador 0 — 0 D

03.07.2007 USA vs Paraguay 1 – 3

11.06.2016 USA vs Paraguay 1 – 0

15.11.2025 USA vs Paraguay 2 – 1

Historical note: these sides also met at the 1930 World Cup (USA 3–0 Paraguay) — their only previous tournament meeting.

Key Players

USA

Christian Pulisic AM AC Milan · 75+ caps · 31 G · Captain

Weston McKennie CM Juventus · 55+ caps

Tyler Adams CDM Bournemouth · 40+ caps

Folarin Balogun ST Monaco · 15+ caps

Paraguay

Antonio Sanabria ST Cremonese · 50+ caps · Captain

Miguel Almirón AM Newcastle · 45+ caps

Julio Enciso AM Ipswich · 15+ caps

Omar Alderete CB Getafe · 30+ caps

Injuries

USA

None reported

Paraguay

None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: SoFi Stadium

Capacity: 70,000

SoFi's fixed translucent canopy shades the pitch and tempers Los Angeles heat, giving neutral, controlled conditions that favour technical, possession football.

Weather: Mid-June LA: mild, ~22–26°C, dry under the canopy.