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Türkiye 0–1 Paraguay
19 Jun · Fri · Levi's Stadium
Our top forecastOver 1.5 goals
✗ INCORRECT

Match summary

Paraguay defeated Türkiye 1-0 at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in a Group D upset that eliminates the Turks. Matías Galarza struck after just 64 seconds — the fastest goal of the 2026 World Cup — slotting a left-footed finish through Türkiye's defence after a fine team move. Paraguay held on despite intense second-half pressure (Türkiye registered 32 shots to Paraguay's 7) and survived a Miguel Almirón red card in first-half stoppage time. Almirón became the first player sent off at the 2026 World Cup, dismissed under FIFA's new 'mouth-covering' rule introduced this tournament. Türkiye finish on zero points and are eliminated; Paraguay keep their campaign alive. Two of our four AI models called it correctly: Claude (Paraguay or draw) and DeepSeek (Paraguay to score) landed in a 1-0 upset. ChatGPT (over 2.5 goals) and Gemini (Türkiye or draw) missed as the favourites fell to a single goal and were eliminated.

Group D standings

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1USA3201+46
2Australia311104
3Paraguay3111-24
4Türkiye3102-23
Türkiye: next match →Paraguay: next match →
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Türkiye – Paraguay Prediction and Betting Tips

Türkiye national football team logo
Türkiye
L W W
vs
20:00
19 Jun · Fri
Paraguay national football team logo
Paraguay
L W L W W
Kick-off: 20:00 local (19 Jun) · 03:00 UTC Venue: Levi's Stadium Referee: Iván Barton
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks
Top Pick
Total:Over: 1.5 Over 1.5 goals 60% confidence
1.31odds

Two winless sides forced to chase a result in a must-win game should produce goals; with both needing to attack, a total above 1.5 is well supported.

Back this tip
Total Team 2 Over: 0.5 62%
Paraguay to score
1.46 odds
Total:Over: 2.5 48%
Over 2.5 goals
1.99 odds
Total Team 1 Over: 0.5 58%
Türkiye to score
1.23 odds
Türkiye and Paraguay meet at Levi's Stadium in a Group D contest that already feels decisive for both. Each lost their opener and sits on zero points — Türkiye beaten 2-0 by Australia without scoring, Paraguay overwhelmed 4-1 by USA — which leaves the loser here facing a near-impossible task to qualify. Türkiye take nominal home billing, but both arrive under pressure and short on confidence. Our forecast leans toward a game that produces goals as the stakes force both sides forward.

No room for caution

The defining feature of this fixture is its must-win nature. Neither Türkiye nor Paraguay can afford a second defeat, and a draw would leave both in a precarious position heading into the final round. That imperative tends to stretch games: as the second half develops and the need for three points sharpens, defensive caution usually gives way to risk. Two sides chasing a result, rather than protecting a point, is the kind of scenario that opens up space and creates chances at both ends.

Two teams searching for form

Türkiye will be desperate to respond after a flat, goalless opening display, and the home billing adds to the expectation on them to take the initiative. Paraguay, despite their heavy defeat, at least showed they can find the net against quality opposition, and they will back themselves to trouble a Türkiye defence that looked uncertain against Australia. Both have clear flaws to address, but both also have enough going forward to punish nervous opponents.

Our forecast

We expect an open, goal-bearing contest driven by the stakes. With both teams needing to win and neither able to sit on a draw, the game should be played on the front foot for long spells. Our headline call is over 1.5 goals, with both sides capable of scoring and a higher total very much in play if the match opens up as expected.
Türkiye — recent matches
14 Jun 2026 Australia 0 — 2 L
06 Jun 2026 Venezuela 2 — 1 W
01 Jun 2026 FYR Macedonia 4 — 0 W
Limited recent international matches
Paraguay — recent matches
13 Jun 2026 USA 1 — 4 L
05 Jun 2026 Nicaragua 4 — 0 W
31 Mar 2026 Morocco 1 — 2 L
27 Mar 2026 Greece 1 — 0 W
09 Sep 2025 Peru 1 — 0 W

Key Players

Türkiye
Hakan Çalhanoğlu CM Inter · 90+ caps · 22 G · Captain
Arda Güler AM Real Madrid · 20+ caps
Kerem Aktürkoğlu LW Benfica · 30+ caps
Merih Demiral CB Al-Ahli · 50+ caps
Paraguay
Antonio Sanabria ST Cremonese · 50+ caps · Captain
Miguel Almirón AM Newcastle · 45+ caps
Julio Enciso AM Ipswich · 15+ caps
Omar Alderete CB Getafe · 30+ caps

Injuries

Türkiye
None reported
Paraguay
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Levi's Stadium
Capacity: 68,500
Levi's is notorious for sun exposure — afternoon kick-offs bake the pitch and sap legs, so timing and rotation matter.
Weather: Mid-June Bay Area: warm and sunny, ~26–30°C in daytime.

Suspensions

Türkiye
None reported
Paraguay
None reported

Other Group D matches

MD1
USA4–1ParaguayLANDEDAustralia2–0TürkiyeMISSED
MD2
USA2–0AustraliaMISSED
MD3
Türkiye3–2USAMISSEDParaguay0–0AustraliaLANDED
MD16
Paraguay0–1FranceLANDEDUSA1–4BelgiumLANDED
MD32
Germany1–1ParaguayLANDEDUSA2–0Bosnia & HerzegovinaLANDEDAustralia1–1EgyptLANDED

Team’s other matches

Türkiye
Australia2–0TürkiyeMISSEDTürkiye3–2USAMISSED
Paraguay
USA4–1ParaguayLANDEDParaguay0–0AustraliaLANDED

Latest AI Predictions

USA1–4BelgiumLANDEDPortugal0–1SpainLANDEDMexico2–3EnglandLANDEDBrazil1–2NorwayMISSEDParaguay0–1FranceLANDED
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