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Türkiye 32 USA
25 Jun · Thu · SoFi Stadium
Our top forecastUnder 2.5 goals
✗ INCORRECT

Turkiye edge USA 3-2 with a stoppage-time Ayhan winner

Turkiye ended their World Cup on a high, beating the USA 3-2 at the SoFi Stadium as Kaan Ayhan struck in the 98th minute to win a thrilling five-goal contest. The Americans, already confirmed as Group D winners, rotated heavily; Turkiye, already eliminated, played with freedom and ambition. Ayhan's late finish, which slipped through Matt Turner's legs, was the latest match-winner the USA have ever conceded at a World Cup — a dramatic full stop on an open, end-to-end evening.

How it unfolded: Guler's record, US fightback, late drama

Arda Guler, 21, opened the scoring to become Turkiye's youngest World Cup scorer, with a second Turkiye goal giving the eliminated side control. The USA responded through Sebastian Berhalter and Auston Trusty — a record fifth different American scorer at the tournament — to level the game and hint at a comeback. Just as a draw beckoned, Ayhan pounced deep in stoppage time to settle a chaotic, momentum-swinging contest in Turkiye's favour.

Context: US records and defensive questions

The USA's eight goals at this tournament are their most ever, beating marks set in 1930 and 2002 and underlining their attacking riches even in a changed side. Christian Pulisic returned from the bench as he eases back from a calf issue, encouraging ahead of the knockouts. Yet the defence struggled badly: Turner had a night to forget, rated as low as 3 out of 10, as the reshuffled backline was repeatedly exposed by Turkiye's adventurous play.

The table: USA top regardless, Turkiye go out

The defeat changed nothing at the top — the USA had already won Group D and finished first on six points (GD plus four). Australia took second, Paraguay third, and Turkiye exit bottom on three points despite their parting win. The USA face Bosnia & Herzegovina next in the Round of 32, with the return of Pulisic a timely boost but the defensive lapses at SoFi a clear area for the coaching staff to address. For Turkiye, a first win of the tournament offers something to build on for the future, even as their campaign ends. Our forecast of Under 2.5 goals missed badly in a five-goal classic, undone by an open, end-to-end contest that neither qualification-settled side felt any obligation to control.

Group D standings

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1USA3201+46
2Australia311104
3Paraguay3111-24
4Türkiye3102-23
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Türkiye – USA Prediction and Betting Tips

Türkiye national football team logo
Türkiye
L L W W
vs
19:00
25 Jun · Thu
USA national football team logo
USA
W W L W L
Kick-off: 19:00 local (25 Jun) · 02:00 UTC Venue: SoFi Stadium Referee: M. Ghorbal
Top forecast + 4 supporting tips
5 picks
Top Pick
Total:Under: 2.5 Under 2.5 goals 60% confidence
2.12odds

A rotated USA with nothing to chase against an eliminated, goalless Türkiye points to a low-key, low-scoring finale.

Back this tip
X2 66%
USA or draw
2.67 odds
Total Team 1 Under: 1.5 66%
Türkiye under 1.5 goals
1.42 odds
Total Team 2 Over: 0.5 68%
USA to score
1.17 odds
Total:Under: 2.0 58%
Under 2.0 goals
3.18 odds
Türkiye host an already-qualified USA at SoFi Stadium in a Group D finale with little riding on the result.

USA already through as winners

USA have won Group D with six points, sealing qualification with a match to spare after wins over Paraguay (4-1) and Australia (2-0). With top spot secured, they may rest key players ahead of the knockouts; even a rotated co-host side carries quality. They arrive with no major absentees reported.

Türkiye eliminated and pointless

Türkiye exit without a point, beaten 2-0 by Australia and 1-0 by Paraguay — failing to score and, against Paraguay, seeing the tournament's first red card under FIFA's new mouth-covering rule. They play only for pride before a neutral Los Angeles crowd.

Our forecast: a low-key, low-scoring finale

With USA likely to rotate and Türkiye toothless and out, our forecast leans low: under 2.5 goals reads as the value angle. Around it, USA to avoid defeat reflects their quality, Türkiye are tipped to stay under 1.5, and even a rotated USA are backed to score.
Türkiye — recent matches
20 Jun 2026 Paraguay 0 — 1 L
14 Jun 2026 Australia 0 — 2 L
06 Jun 2026 Venezuela 2 — 1 W
01 Jun 2026 FYR Macedonia 4 — 0 W
Limited recent international matches
USA — recent matches
19 Jun 2026 Australia 2 — 0 W
13 Jun 2026 Paraguay 4 — 1 W
06 Jun 2026 Germany 1 — 2 L
31 May 2026 Senegal 3 — 2 W
31 Mar 2026 Portugal 0 — 2 L
07.06.2025 USA vs Türkiye 1 — 2

Key Players

Türkiye
Hakan Çalhanoğlu CM Inter · 90+ caps · 22 G · Captain
Arda Güler AM Real Madrid · 20+ caps
Kerem Aktürkoğlu LW Benfica · 30+ caps
Merih Demiral CB Al-Ahli · 50+ caps
USA
Christian Pulisic AM AC Milan · 75+ caps · 31 G · Captain
Weston McKennie CM Juventus · 55+ caps
Tyler Adams CDM Bournemouth · 40+ caps
Folarin Balogun ST Monaco · 15+ caps

Injuries

Türkiye
None reported
USA
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: SoFi Stadium
Capacity: 70,000
SoFi's fixed translucent canopy shades the pitch and tempers Los Angeles heat, giving neutral, controlled conditions that favour technical, possession football.
Weather: Mid-June LA: mild, ~22–26°C, dry under the canopy.

Suspensions

Türkiye
None reported
USA
None reported

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