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Germany 11 Paraguay
29 Jun · Mon · Gillette Stadium
Our top forecastGermany or draw
✓ CORRECT

Paraguay knock out Germany on penalties in stunning upset

Paraguay pulled off the shock of the World Cup, eliminating four-time champions Germany on penalties at Gillette Stadium after a 1-1 draw. Level after 120 minutes, the tie went to a shootout Paraguay won 4-3, goalkeeper Gill saving before Canale sealed it. For Germany it is a chastening exit; for Paraguay, who reached the knockouts as the seventh of eight best thirds, it extends one of the most improbable runs of the tournament.

How it unfolded: Havertz, a Paraguay reply, VAR drama, penalties

Kai Havertz put Germany ahead, but Paraguay levelled to force extra time. The flashpoint came when Germany had a goal ruled out by a contentious VAR review in the additional period, denying them a winner. With nothing to separate the sides after 120 minutes, the shootout followed: Gill made the decisive save and Canale converted the clincher to send Paraguay through.

Context: a giant falls, a fairytale rolls on

Germany's elimination is the tournament's biggest shock so far — a four-time champion undone by a best-third qualifier and a contentious VAR call that denied them an extra-time winner at the cruellest moment. It is an exit that will prompt hard questions back home. Paraguay, written off before the finals, have ridden organisation, resilience and shootout nerve into the last 16, with goalkeeper Gill the symbol of a run built on belief against the odds — and a nation now dreaming of how much further it might go.

The next step: Paraguay march on

Paraguay advance to the Round of 16 to face the winner of France against Sweden on July 4 at Lincoln Financial Field; Germany exit at the Round of 32. Our forecast of Germany-or-draw landed — the match finished level in regulation — though it was Paraguay who progressed from the spot in a result few saw coming.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Germany – Paraguay Prediction and Betting Tips

Germany national football team logo
Germany
L W W W W
vs
16:30
29 Jun · Mon
Paraguay national football team logo
Paraguay
D W L W L
Kick-off: 16:30 local (29 Jun) · 20:30 UTC Venue: Gillette Stadium Referee: J. Jayed
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks
Top Pick
1X Germany or draw 60% confidence
1.16odds

Germany hold the edge in quality and need only avoid a 90-minute defeat to reach extra time; Paraguay's resilience could force a draw, but the double chance is the measured play.

Back this tip
Total:Under: 2.5 58%
Under 2.5 goals
2.11 odds
Win 1 55%
Germany to win
1.36 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 62%
Paraguay under 1.5 goals
1.14 odds
This Round of 32 tie brings together a group winner and a best third-placed qualifier with contrasting routes to the last 32. Germany, full of attacking quality, advanced as one of the seeded sides, while Paraguay reached the knockouts through a disciplined, defence-first approach. Expect a clash of styles: Julian Nagelsmann's possession-heavy Germany against Gustavo Alfaro's compact, counter-minded Paraguay. With a Round of 16 place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, caution is likely to shape the contest. Our forecast favours Germany to avoid defeat, with goals at a premium against an organised Paraguay.
Germany — recent matches
25 Jun 2026 Ecuador 1 — 2 L
20 Jun 2026 Ivory Coast 2 — 1 W
14 Jun 2026 Curaçao 7 — 1 W
06 Jun 2026 USA 2 — 1 W
31 May 2026 Finland 4 — 0 W
Paraguay — recent matches
26 Jun 2026 Australia 0 — 0 D
20 Jun 2026 Türkiye 1 — 0 W
13 Jun 2026 USA 1 — 4 L
05 Jun 2026 Nicaragua 4 — 0 W
31 Mar 2026 Morocco 1 — 2 L

Squad Availability

Injured · Suspended

Germany

N. Brown
N. Schlotterbeck

Paraguay

D. Gómez

Key Players

Germany
Joshua Kimmich CM Bayern · 90+ caps · 8 G · Captain
Jamal Musiala AM Bayern · 35+ caps · 9 G
Florian Wirtz AM Liverpool · 30+ caps · 7 G
Kai Havertz ST Arsenal · 50+ caps · 19 G
Antonio Rüdiger CB Real Madrid · 75+ caps
Paraguay
Antonio Sanabria ST Cremonese · 50+ caps · Captain
Miguel Almirón AM Newcastle · 45+ caps
Julio Enciso AM Ipswich · 15+ caps
Omar Alderete CB Getafe · 30+ caps

Injuries

Germany
None reported
Paraguay
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Capacity: 65,000
Open-air New England venue; June conditions are usually moderate, taking heat largely out of the equation.
Weather: Mid-June Foxborough: mild, ~20–25°C.

Suspensions

Germany
None reported
Paraguay
None reported

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