Paraguay knock out Germany on penalties in stunning upset
Paraguay pulled off the shock of the World Cup, eliminating four-time champions Germany on penalties at Gillette Stadium after a 1-1 draw. Level after 120 minutes, the tie went to a shootout Paraguay won 4-3, goalkeeper Gill saving before Canale sealed it. For Germany it is a chastening exit; for Paraguay, who reached the knockouts as the seventh of eight best thirds, it extends one of the most improbable runs of the tournament.
How it unfolded: Havertz, a Paraguay reply, VAR drama, penalties
Kai Havertz put Germany ahead, but Paraguay levelled to force extra time. The flashpoint came when Germany had a goal ruled out by a contentious VAR review in the additional period, denying them a winner. With nothing to separate the sides after 120 minutes, the shootout followed: Gill made the decisive save and Canale converted the clincher to send Paraguay through.
Context: a giant falls, a fairytale rolls on
Germany's elimination is the tournament's biggest shock so far — a four-time champion undone by a best-third qualifier and a contentious VAR call that denied them an extra-time winner at the cruellest moment. It is an exit that will prompt hard questions back home. Paraguay, written off before the finals, have ridden organisation, resilience and shootout nerve into the last 16, with goalkeeper Gill the symbol of a run built on belief against the odds — and a nation now dreaming of how much further it might go.
The next step: Paraguay march on
Paraguay advance to the Round of 16 to face the winner of France against Sweden on July 4 at Lincoln Financial Field; Germany exit at the Round of 32. Our forecast of Germany-or-draw landed — the match finished level in regulation — though it was Paraguay who progressed from the spot in a result few saw coming.
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World
Germany – Paraguay Prediction and Betting Tips
Germany
LWWWW
vs
16:30
29 Jun · Mon
Paraguay
DWLWL
Kick-off: 16:30 local (29 Jun) · 20:30 UTCVenue: Gillette StadiumReferee: J. Jayed
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks Top Pick
1XGermany or draw60% confidence
1.16odds
Germany hold the edge in quality and need only avoid a 90-minute defeat to reach extra time; Paraguay's resilience could force a draw, but the double chance is the measured play.
Back this tip
Total:Under: 2.558%
Under 2.5 goals
2.11 odds
Win 155%
Germany to win
1.36 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.562%
Paraguay under 1.5 goals
1.14 odds
This Round of 32 tie brings together a group winner and a best third-placed qualifier with contrasting routes to the last 32. Germany, full of attacking quality, advanced as one of the seeded sides, while Paraguay reached the knockouts through a disciplined, defence-first approach. Expect a clash of styles: Julian Nagelsmann's possession-heavy Germany against Gustavo Alfaro's compact, counter-minded Paraguay. With a Round of 16 place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, caution is likely to shape the contest. Our forecast favours Germany to avoid defeat, with goals at a premium against an organised Paraguay.
Germany — recent matches
25 Jun 2026Ecuador1 — 2L
20 Jun 2026Ivory Coast2 — 1W
14 Jun 2026Curaçao7 — 1W
06 Jun 2026USA2 — 1W
31 May 2026Finland4 — 0W
Paraguay — recent matches
26 Jun 2026Australia0 — 0D
20 Jun 2026Türkiye1 — 0W
13 Jun 2026USA1 — 4L
05 Jun 2026Nicaragua4 — 0W
31 Mar 2026Morocco1 — 2L
Squad Availability
✚ Injured ·■ Suspended
Germany
✚N. Brown
✚N. Schlotterbeck
Paraguay
✚D. Gómez
Key Players
Germany
Joshua KimmichCMBayern · 90+ caps · 8 G · Captain
Jamal MusialaAMBayern · 35+ caps · 9 G
Florian WirtzAMLiverpool · 30+ caps · 7 G
Kai HavertzSTArsenal · 50+ caps · 19 G
Antonio RüdigerCBReal Madrid · 75+ caps
Paraguay
Antonio SanabriaSTCremonese · 50+ caps · Captain
Miguel AlmirónAMNewcastle · 45+ caps
Julio EncisoAMIpswich · 15+ caps
Omar AldereteCBGetafe · 30+ caps
Injuries
Germany
None reported
Paraguay
None reported
Venue · Context
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Capacity: 65,000
Open-air New England venue; June conditions are usually moderate, taking heat largely out of the equation.