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Tunisia 13 Netherlands
25 Jun · Thu · Arrowhead Stadium
Our top forecastOver 2.5 goals
✓ CORRECT

Netherlands win Group F with a clinical defeat of Tunisia

The Netherlands completed an impressive group stage with a 3-1 win over Tunisia at Arrowhead Stadium, securing top spot in Group F. They could hardly have started better: Tunisia captain Ellyes Skhiri turned a Denzel Dumfries cross into his own net inside three minutes, and Brobbey — starting in place of Crysencio Summerville — added a second with a header. Dominant on the ball at 72 per cent possession, Ronald Koeman's side finished the group with 10 goals in three matches, confirming them as one of the tournament's sharpest and most consistent attacks heading into the knockout rounds.

How it unfolded: early Dutch goals and a Tunisia reply

Skhiri's third-minute own goal, from a dangerous Dumfries cross, set the tone, and Brobbey doubled the lead on seven minutes by heading in a precise Virgil van Dijk delivery. Tunisia rallied briefly when Hazem Mastouri headed home from a corner on 54 minutes to make it 2-1, but the Netherlands quickly reasserted control: Jan Paul van Hecke rose to meet a Tijjani Reijnders corner and head in the third on 61 minutes. The Dutch saw out the remainder of the contest with comfort, never letting Tunisia build sustained pressure.

Context: Tunisia's campaign ends in disarray

A third successive defeat sealed Tunisia's elimination after a tournament that had gone wrong early — manager Sabri Lamouchi was sacked following the opening game, and the team never steadied or found cohesion. Mastouri's header was a rare bright spot on a night when Tunisia were again undone from set-pieces, an area of repeated weakness across the group. For the Netherlands, the evening was about momentum: ruthless finishing and an aerial threat that bodes well for the challenges to come in the last 32.

The table: Dutch top, Morocco await

Netherlands finished first in Group F on seven points (GD plus six), with Japan second and Sweden third to also advance; Tunisia ended bottom on zero and are out. The Dutch now meet Morocco in the Round of 32, a meeting of contrasting styles between Koeman's free-scoring side and one of the tournament's most disciplined defensive units. With 10 goals already to their name and a side dangerous from open play and dead balls alike, the Netherlands travel into the knockouts as one of the form teams. Our forecast of Over 2.5 goals landed comfortably in a four-goal contest, as the Netherlands' attacking quality delivered exactly the kind of open, high-scoring win the numbers had suggested.

Group F standings

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands3210+67
2Japan3120+45
3Sweden311104
4Tunisia3003-100
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Tunisia – Netherlands Prediction and Betting Tips

Tunisia national football team logo
Tunisia
L L L L D
vs
18:00
25 Jun · Thu
Netherlands national football team logo
Netherlands
W D W L D
Kick-off: 18:00 local (25 Jun) · 23:00 UTC Venue: Arrowhead Stadium Referee: K. I. Garcia Mendoza
Top forecast + 4 supporting tips
5 picks
Top Pick
Total:Over: 2.5 Over 2.5 goals 60% confidence
1.43odds

A rampant Netherlands chasing top spot against an eliminated, leaky Tunisia points to a comfortable, multi-goal win.

Back this tip
Win 2 70%
Netherlands to win
1.10 odds
Total Team 2 Over: 1.5 66%
Netherlands over 1.5 goals
1.18 odds
Total Team 1 Under: 1.5 64%
Tunisia under 1.5 goals
1.05 odds
Total:Over: 1.5 84%
Over 1.5 goals
1.12 odds
Tunisia host an in-form Netherlands at Arrowhead Stadium in a Group F finale where only the visitors have anything left to play for.

Netherlands chasing top spot

Netherlands arrive in ruthless form after a 5-1 demolition of Sweden, having opened with a 2-2 draw against Japan. Level at the top, a win confirms first place and a kinder knockout route. With their attack purring, they will keep the pressure on Japan. They arrive with no major absentees reported.

Tunisia out and rebuilding

Tunisia are already eliminated, beaten 5-1 by Sweden and 4-0 by Japan and outscored 9-1 — a torrid tournament with Hervé Renard still settling in just two matches into his tenure. They play only for pride, and stemming the tide may be the realistic aim.

Our forecast: goals for the Dutch

With Netherlands rampant against a leaky Tunisia, our forecast leans toward goals: the total over 2.5 reads as the value angle. Around it, a Netherlands win reflects their class, Netherlands over 1.5 fits their form, and Tunisia are tipped to stay under 1.5.
Tunisia — recent matches
21 Jun 2026 Japan 0 — 4 L
15 Jun 2026 Sweden 1 — 5 L
06 Jun 2026 Belgium 0 — 5 L
01 Jun 2026 Austria 0 — 1 L
31 Mar 2026 Canada 0 — 0 D
Netherlands — recent matches
20 Jun 2026 Sweden 5 — 1 W
14 Jun 2026 Japan 2 — 2 D
08 Jun 2026 Uzbekistan 2 — 1 W
03 Jun 2026 Algeria 0 — 1 L
31 Mar 2026 Ecuador 1 — 1 D

Key Players

Tunisia
Hannibal Mejbri AM Burnley · 25+ caps
Aïssa Laïdouni CM Union Berlin · Captain
Wahbi Khazri AM Montpellier · 80+ caps
Issam Jebali ST Odense BK
Netherlands
Virgil van Dijk CB Liverpool · 80+ caps · 10 G · Captain
Cody Gakpo LW Liverpool · 35+ caps · 14 G
Memphis Depay AM Corinthians · 100+ caps · 50 G
Frenkie de Jong CM Barcelona · 60+ caps

Injuries

Tunisia
None reported
Netherlands
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
Capacity: 76,000
Kansas City's Arrowhead is open-air, loud and often hot in June — heat and atmosphere both weigh on visiting sides.
Weather: Mid-June: hot, humid, ~30–33°C.

Suspensions

Tunisia
None reported
Netherlands
None reported

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