Late Martinelli strike rescues Brazil against brave Japan
Brazil avoided a major upset with a 2-1 win over Japan at NRG Stadium in Houston, Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time goal settling a tie the Samurai Blue had led. The five-time champions were second best for long periods but found a way, even as the late, laboured nature of the victory kept the spotlight on a side still short of its best. Japan, agonisingly, remain without a World Cup win over Brazil.
How it unfolded: Sano, Casemiro and a stoppage-time winner
Kaishu Sano fired Japan ahead on 29 minutes with a fine finish, and they held the lead to the break. Brazil levelled almost immediately after the restart through Casemiro around the 46th minute, and with Vinicius Junior prominent they pressed for a winner. It arrived only in stoppage time, Martinelli striking to break Japanese hearts after a contest Japan had threatened to win.
Context: champions still searching for their best
The relief was palpable, but this was another night that cast Brazil as a work in progress — rich in individual talent yet lacking the cohesion of a true favourite, and far from convincing as the knockouts deepen. The late winner masked a display below their standards, and they will need to improve markedly to go far. Japan can hold their heads high: organised and brave, a goal to the good through Sano, they fell only to a last-gasp strike, extending a painful record against Brazil but enhancing their reputation with a performance that came within seconds of a famous upset.
The next step: Brazil to the Round of 16
Brazil advance to meet the winner of Ivory Coast against Norway on July 5 at MetLife Stadium; Japan exit at the Round of 32 with pride intact. Our forecast of a Brazil win landed, though the champions were pushed far harder than the scoreline suggests, surviving rather than dominating.
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World
Brazil – Japan Prediction and Betting Tips
Brazil
WWDWW
vs
12:00
29 Jun · Mon
Japan
DWDWW
Kick-off: 12:00 local (29 Jun) · 17:00 UTCVenue: NRG StadiumReferee: M. Mariani
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks Top Pick
Win 1Brazil to win70% confidence
1.70odds
Brazil's depth of attacking quality and pedigree make them strong favourites to see off a disciplined Japan in regulation; the Samurai Blue have never won a World Cup knockout tie, and a shock here would be one of the round's biggest.
Back this tip
1X80%
Brazil or draw
1.20 odds
Total Team 1 Over: 1.558%
Brazil over 1.5 goals
1.87 odds
Total:Over: 2.554%
Over 2.5 goals
2.04 odds
This Round of 32 tie at NRG Stadium in Houston pits the Group C winners against the Group F runners-up in a meeting of pedigree and precision. Brazil, the five-time world champions, advanced in commanding style, while Japan negotiated their group unbeaten for the first time on the back of technical control and discipline. Expect quality against organisation: Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil carry the draw's strongest attacking threat, whereas Hajime Moriyasu's Japan — still seeking a first-ever World Cup knockout win — will look to stay compact and counter. With a Round of 16 place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, Brazil are heavy favourites. Our forecast backs Brazil to win, though Japan's belief makes them dangerous if the tie stays level.
Brazil — recent matches
24 Jun 2026Scotland3 — 0W
20 Jun 2026Haiti3 — 0W
13 Jun 2026Morocco1 — 1D
06 Jun 2026Egypt2 — 1W
31 May 2026Panama6 — 2W
Japan — recent matches
25 Jun 2026Sweden1 — 1D
21 Jun 2026Tunisia4 — 0W
14 Jun 2026Netherlands2 — 2D
31 May 2026Iceland1 — 0W
31 Mar 2026England1 — 0W
14.10.2025JapanvsBrazil3 — 2
06.06.2022JapanvsBrazil0 — 1
10.11.2017JapanvsBrazil1 — 3
15.06.2013BrazilvsJapan3 — 0
Squad Availability
✚ Injured ·■ Suspended
Brazil
✚Raphinha
Japan
No reported absences
Key Players
Brazil
Vinícius JúniorLWReal Madrid · 35+ caps · 5 G
RodrygoRWReal Madrid · 30+ caps · 7 G
MarquinhosCBPSG · 90+ caps · Captain
Bruno GuimarãesCMNewcastle · 40+ caps
EndrickSTReal Madrid · 15+ caps · 4 G
Japan
Takefusa KuboRWReal Sociedad · 35+ caps
Wataru EndoCDMLiverpool · 65+ caps · Captain
Kaoru MitomaLWBrighton · 30+ caps
Daichi KamadaAMCrystal Palace · 40+ caps
Injuries
Brazil
NeymarReturning from long-term knee injuryDoubtful
Japan
None reported
Venue · Context
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Capacity: 72,000
Houston's NRG Stadium has a retractable roof expected to close against extreme Gulf-coast heat and humidity, creating controlled indoor conditions.
Weather: Roof likely closed; outside hot/humid, ~33°C and sticky.