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Brazil 21 Japan
29 Jun · Mon · NRG Stadium
Our top forecastBrazil to win
✓ CORRECT

Late Martinelli strike rescues Brazil against brave Japan

Brazil avoided a major upset with a 2-1 win over Japan at NRG Stadium in Houston, Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time goal settling a tie the Samurai Blue had led. The five-time champions were second best for long periods but found a way, even as the late, laboured nature of the victory kept the spotlight on a side still short of its best. Japan, agonisingly, remain without a World Cup win over Brazil.

How it unfolded: Sano, Casemiro and a stoppage-time winner

Kaishu Sano fired Japan ahead on 29 minutes with a fine finish, and they held the lead to the break. Brazil levelled almost immediately after the restart through Casemiro around the 46th minute, and with Vinicius Junior prominent they pressed for a winner. It arrived only in stoppage time, Martinelli striking to break Japanese hearts after a contest Japan had threatened to win.

Context: champions still searching for their best

The relief was palpable, but this was another night that cast Brazil as a work in progress — rich in individual talent yet lacking the cohesion of a true favourite, and far from convincing as the knockouts deepen. The late winner masked a display below their standards, and they will need to improve markedly to go far. Japan can hold their heads high: organised and brave, a goal to the good through Sano, they fell only to a last-gasp strike, extending a painful record against Brazil but enhancing their reputation with a performance that came within seconds of a famous upset.

The next step: Brazil to the Round of 16

Brazil advance to meet the winner of Ivory Coast against Norway on July 5 at MetLife Stadium; Japan exit at the Round of 32 with pride intact. Our forecast of a Brazil win landed, though the champions were pushed far harder than the scoreline suggests, surviving rather than dominating.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Brazil – Japan Prediction and Betting Tips

Brazil national football team logo
Brazil
W W D W W
vs
12:00
29 Jun · Mon
Japan national football team logo
Japan
D W D W W
Kick-off: 12:00 local (29 Jun) · 17:00 UTC Venue: NRG Stadium Referee: M. Mariani
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks
Top Pick
Win 1 Brazil to win 70% confidence
1.70odds

Brazil's depth of attacking quality and pedigree make them strong favourites to see off a disciplined Japan in regulation; the Samurai Blue have never won a World Cup knockout tie, and a shock here would be one of the round's biggest.

Back this tip
1X 80%
Brazil or draw
1.20 odds
Total Team 1 Over: 1.5 58%
Brazil over 1.5 goals
1.87 odds
Total:Over: 2.5 54%
Over 2.5 goals
2.04 odds
This Round of 32 tie at NRG Stadium in Houston pits the Group C winners against the Group F runners-up in a meeting of pedigree and precision. Brazil, the five-time world champions, advanced in commanding style, while Japan negotiated their group unbeaten for the first time on the back of technical control and discipline. Expect quality against organisation: Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil carry the draw's strongest attacking threat, whereas Hajime Moriyasu's Japan — still seeking a first-ever World Cup knockout win — will look to stay compact and counter. With a Round of 16 place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, Brazil are heavy favourites. Our forecast backs Brazil to win, though Japan's belief makes them dangerous if the tie stays level.
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Squad Availability

Injured · Suspended

Brazil

Raphinha

Japan

No reported absences

Key Players

Brazil
Vinícius Júnior LW Real Madrid · 35+ caps · 5 G
Rodrygo RW Real Madrid · 30+ caps · 7 G
Marquinhos CB PSG · 90+ caps · Captain
Bruno Guimarães CM Newcastle · 40+ caps
Endrick ST Real Madrid · 15+ caps · 4 G
Japan
Takefusa Kubo RW Real Sociedad · 35+ caps
Wataru Endo CDM Liverpool · 65+ caps · Captain
Kaoru Mitoma LW Brighton · 30+ caps
Daichi Kamada AM Crystal Palace · 40+ caps

Injuries

Brazil
Neymar Returning from long-term knee injury Doubtful
Japan
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: NRG Stadium
Capacity: 72,000
Houston's NRG Stadium has a retractable roof expected to close against extreme Gulf-coast heat and humidity, creating controlled indoor conditions.
Weather: Roof likely closed; outside hot/humid, ~33°C and sticky.

Suspensions

Brazil
None reported
Japan
None reported

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