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Japan 11 Sweden
25 Jun · Thu · AT&T Stadium
Our top forecastOver 2.5 goals
✗ INCORRECT

Japan and Sweden draw to send both into the Round of 32

Japan and Sweden played out a 1-1 draw at the AT&T Stadium that carried both nations into the knockout rounds, a mutually useful result that — with Netherlands winning Group F — confirmed three qualifiers from the section. Maeda's opener for Japan was matched by Anthony Elanga's strike, and neither side overreached once the picture became clear. For Japan it sealed a third successive World Cup knockout berth, extending an impressive run of tournament consistency for the Samurai Blue.

How it unfolded: Maeda, Elanga and a late Suzuki save

Maeda put Japan ahead, becoming the third Japanese player to score at more than one World Cup with a tidy finish. Sweden hit back on 62 minutes through Elanga, who bent a left-footed effort into the far corner — one of a tournament-leading four Swedish goals from outside the area. In the 94th minute Zion Suzuki kept Japan's qualification on track with a brilliant stop to deny Alexander Isak, securing the point both teams ultimately needed and capping a composed goalkeeping display.

Context: Japan chase a knockout breakthrough

A third straight last-32 qualification highlights Japan's consistency, but a notable hurdle remains: they have never won a World Cup knockout tie, exiting in the last 16 every previous time. Their reward now is a meeting with Brazil and a chance to rewrite that history. Sweden, for their part, leave behind a signature trait — a willingness to shoot from range that produced more long-distance goals than any other side at the finals, with Elanga's curler the standout.

The table: Netherlands lead, Japan and Sweden progress

Group F ended with Netherlands top on seven points, Japan second on five (GD plus four) and Sweden third on four with a goal difference of zero, keeping them in the best-third race; Tunisia finished bottom and exit. Japan now turn to a formidable date with Brazil in Houston, the chance to claim a first-ever knockout win against the most decorated nation in World Cup history. Sweden, meanwhile, will sweat on the third-placed standings but can take heart from a campaign in which their shooting from distance troubled every opponent. Our forecast of Over 2.5 goals missed in a tense 1-1 stalemate, as both sides ultimately prioritised the cautious result that took them through rather than chasing a winner.

Group F standings

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands3210+67
2Japan3120+45
3Sweden311104
4Tunisia3003-100
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Japan – Sweden Prediction and Betting Tips

Japan national football team logo
Japan
W D W W W
vs
18:00
25 Jun · Thu
Sweden national football team logo
Sweden
L W D L
Kick-off: 18:00 local (25 Jun) · 23:00 UTC Venue: AT&T Stadium Referee: I. Barton
Top forecast + 4 supporting tips
5 picks
Top Pick
Total:Over: 2.5 Over 2.5 goals 60% confidence
1.79odds

Sweden must chase the game and both sides have scored freely, pointing to a high-stakes decider that clears 2.5 goals.

Back this tip
1X 62%
Japan or draw
2.38 odds
Total Team 1 Over: 1.5 62%
Japan over 1.5 goals
1.79 odds
Total Team 2 Over: 0.5 72%
Sweden to score
1.42 odds
Total:Over: 1.5 82%
Over 1.5 goals
1.24 odds
Japan and Sweden meet at AT&T Stadium in a Group F decider with qualification on the line for both.

Japan in control of their fate

Japan sit on four points after a 2-2 draw with Netherlands and a 4-0 rout of Tunisia, and a result books their place in the knockouts. In form and scoring freely, they will be confident in front of a supportive Dallas crowd. They arrive with no major absentees reported.

Sweden must win

Sweden have three points after a 5-1 win over Tunisia and a 1-5 defeat to Netherlands, and only a victory lifts them through. They carry genuine threat, as their five goals against Tunisia showed, but must take the game to a confident Japan and leave gaps at the back.

Our forecast: goals in a decider

With Sweden forced to chase and both sides capable of scoring, our forecast leans toward goals: the total over 2.5 reads as the value angle. Around it, Japan to avoid defeat reflects their edge, Japan over 1.5 fits their form, and Sweden are tipped to score.
Japan — recent matches
21 Jun 2026 Tunisia 4 — 0 W
14 Jun 2026 Netherlands 2 — 2 D
31 May 2026 Iceland 1 — 0 W
31 Mar 2026 England 1 — 0 W
28 Mar 2026 Scotland 1 — 0 W
Sweden — recent matches
20 Jun 2026 Netherlands 1 — 5 L
15 Jun 2026 Tunisia 5 — 1 W
04 Jun 2026 Greece 2 — 2 D
01 Jun 2026 Norway 1 — 3 L
Limited recent international matches

Squad Availability

Injured · Suspended

Japan

S. Machino

Sweden

No reported absences

Key Players

Japan
Takefusa Kubo RW Real Sociedad · 35+ caps
Wataru Endo CDM Liverpool · 65+ caps · Captain
Kaoru Mitoma LW Brighton · 30+ caps
Daichi Kamada AM Crystal Palace · 40+ caps
Sweden
Alexander Isak ST Liverpool · 40+ caps · 16 G
Dejan Kulusevski RW Tottenham · 35+ caps · 7 G
Victor Lindelöf CB Aston Villa · 70+ caps · Captain
Anthony Elanga LW Newcastle · 20+ caps

Injuries

Japan
None reported
Sweden
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: AT&T Stadium
Capacity: 80,000
AT&T Stadium's retractable roof is expected to stay shut against the Texas summer, air-conditioning the arena and removing heat as a variable.
Weather: Roof likely closed; climate-controlled (outside ~34°C).

Suspensions

Japan
None reported
Sweden
None reported

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