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Netherlands 22 Morocco
29 Jun · Mon · Estadio BBVA
Our top forecastNetherlands or draw
✓ CORRECT

Morocco edge the Netherlands on penalties in a Monterrey thriller

Morocco knocked out the Netherlands on penalties at the Estadio BBVA after a gripping 2-2 draw, the 2022 semi-finalists winning the shootout 3-2. Soufiane Rahimi scored and Abdessamad Saibari sealed it, with Achraf Hakimi's earlier miss off the post forgotten. For the Netherlands it was a painfully familiar exit — beaten on spot-kicks once again — while Morocco's big-game pedigree carried them into the last 16.

How it unfolded: four goals, then a shootout

An open contest saw the Netherlands twice take the lead, only for Morocco to peg them back each time. The decisive equaliser came on 91 minutes when Diop headed home from a Talbi cross to force extra time. With no winner after 120 minutes, penalties followed: Hakimi struck the post, but Rahimi converted and Saibari held his nerve to clinch a 3-2 shootout win.

Context: Dutch deja vu, Moroccan nerve

The Netherlands suffered a cruel echo of 2014 and 2022, eliminated on penalties yet again after twice leading and conceding a 91st-minute equaliser they will long regret. It is a haunting, familiar way for a gifted Dutch side to exit. Morocco reaffirmed the resilience and composure that took them to the 2022 semi-finals, ruthless from twelve yards when it counted even after Hakimi struck the post. Their run goes on, and they will be a side nobody wants to face — the tournament's most accomplished underdogs gathering momentum.

The next step: Morocco meet Canada

Morocco advance to face Canada in the Round of 16, pairing two of the tournament's stories; the Netherlands exit at the Round of 32, beaten from the spot. Our forecast of Netherlands-or-draw landed — the tie finished level in regulation — but it was Morocco who progressed on penalties.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Netherlands – Morocco Prediction and Betting Tips

Netherlands national football team logo
Netherlands
W W D W L
vs
19:00
29 Jun · Mon
Morocco national football team logo
Morocco
W W D D W
Kick-off: 19:00 local (29 Jun) · 01:00 UTC Venue: Estadio BBVA Referee: W. Sampaio
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks
Top Pick
1X Netherlands or draw 60% confidence
1.34odds

The Netherlands edge the market as their group's top scorers and need only avoid a 90-minute defeat to reach extra time; Morocco's organisation and 2022 pedigree make this close, so the double chance is the measured play.

Back this tip
Total:Under: 2.5 55%
Under 2.5 goals
1.77 odds
Win 1 47%
Netherlands to win
2.22 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 60%
Morocco under 1.5 goals
1.34 odds
This Round of 32 tie at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey is the pick of the confirmed pairings, bringing together the Group F winners and the Group C runners-up. The Netherlands advanced as their group's most prolific attack, scoring freely on the way to top spot, while Morocco — semi-finalists at the 2022 World Cup — progressed on organisation, resilience and tournament know-how. Expect a tight, tactical encounter: Ronald Koeman's attacking Netherlands will look to break down a compact block, whereas Mohamed Ouahbi's Morocco will defend with discipline and threaten on the counter. With a Round of 16 place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, both sides may err on the side of caution. Our forecast narrowly favours the Netherlands to avoid defeat in a closely-contested, low-scoring tie.
Netherlands — recent matches
25 Jun 2026 Tunisia 3 — 1 W
20 Jun 2026 Sweden 5 — 1 W
14 Jun 2026 Japan 2 — 2 D
08 Jun 2026 Uzbekistan 2 — 1 W
03 Jun 2026 Algeria 0 — 1 L
Morocco — recent matches
24 Jun 2026 Haiti 4 — 2 W
19 Jun 2026 Scotland 1 — 0 W
13 Jun 2026 Brazil 1 — 1 D
07 Jun 2026 Norway 1 — 1 D
02 Jun 2026 Madagascar 4 — 0 W
31.05.2017 Morocco vs Netherlands 1 — 2

Key Players

Netherlands
Virgil van Dijk CB Liverpool · 80+ caps · 10 G · Captain
Cody Gakpo LW Liverpool · 35+ caps · 14 G
Memphis Depay AM Corinthians · 100+ caps · 50 G
Frenkie de Jong CM Barcelona · 60+ caps
Morocco
Achraf Hakimi RB PSG · 80+ caps · 11 G
Hakim Ziyech AM Al-Duhail · 60+ caps
Sofyan Amrabat CDM Fiorentina · 60+ caps
Youssef En-Nesyri ST Fenerbahçe · 75+ caps · 25 G
Romain Saïss CB Damac · 70+ caps · Captain

Injuries

Netherlands
None reported
Morocco
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Estadio BBVA
Capacity: 53,500
Altitude: 540m above sea level
Monterrey is among the hottest host cities — daytime kick-offs can exceed 30°C, putting a premium on hydration and squad depth.
Weather: Mid-June: hot and dry, frequently 32°C+ in daytime.

Suspensions

Netherlands
None reported
Morocco
None reported

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