Morocco edge the Netherlands on penalties in a Monterrey thriller
Morocco knocked out the Netherlands on penalties at the Estadio BBVA after a gripping 2-2 draw, the 2022 semi-finalists winning the shootout 3-2. Soufiane Rahimi scored and Abdessamad Saibari sealed it, with Achraf Hakimi's earlier miss off the post forgotten. For the Netherlands it was a painfully familiar exit — beaten on spot-kicks once again — while Morocco's big-game pedigree carried them into the last 16.
How it unfolded: four goals, then a shootout
An open contest saw the Netherlands twice take the lead, only for Morocco to peg them back each time. The decisive equaliser came on 91 minutes when Diop headed home from a Talbi cross to force extra time. With no winner after 120 minutes, penalties followed: Hakimi struck the post, but Rahimi converted and Saibari held his nerve to clinch a 3-2 shootout win.
Context: Dutch deja vu, Moroccan nerve
The Netherlands suffered a cruel echo of 2014 and 2022, eliminated on penalties yet again after twice leading and conceding a 91st-minute equaliser they will long regret. It is a haunting, familiar way for a gifted Dutch side to exit. Morocco reaffirmed the resilience and composure that took them to the 2022 semi-finals, ruthless from twelve yards when it counted even after Hakimi struck the post. Their run goes on, and they will be a side nobody wants to face — the tournament's most accomplished underdogs gathering momentum.
The next step: Morocco meet Canada
Morocco advance to face Canada in the Round of 16, pairing two of the tournament's stories; the Netherlands exit at the Round of 32, beaten from the spot. Our forecast of Netherlands-or-draw landed — the tie finished level in regulation — but it was Morocco who progressed on penalties.
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World
Netherlands – Morocco Prediction and Betting Tips
Netherlands
WWDWL
vs
19:00
29 Jun · Mon
Morocco
WWDDW
Kick-off: 19:00 local (29 Jun) · 01:00 UTCVenue: Estadio BBVAReferee: W. Sampaio
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks Top Pick
1XNetherlands or draw60% confidence
1.34odds
The Netherlands edge the market as their group's top scorers and need only avoid a 90-minute defeat to reach extra time; Morocco's organisation and 2022 pedigree make this close, so the double chance is the measured play.
Back this tip
Total:Under: 2.555%
Under 2.5 goals
1.77 odds
Win 147%
Netherlands to win
2.22 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.560%
Morocco under 1.5 goals
1.34 odds
This Round of 32 tie at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey is the pick of the confirmed pairings, bringing together the Group F winners and the Group C runners-up. The Netherlands advanced as their group's most prolific attack, scoring freely on the way to top spot, while Morocco — semi-finalists at the 2022 World Cup — progressed on organisation, resilience and tournament know-how. Expect a tight, tactical encounter: Ronald Koeman's attacking Netherlands will look to break down a compact block, whereas Mohamed Ouahbi's Morocco will defend with discipline and threaten on the counter. With a Round of 16 place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, both sides may err on the side of caution. Our forecast narrowly favours the Netherlands to avoid defeat in a closely-contested, low-scoring tie.
Netherlands — recent matches
25 Jun 2026Tunisia3 — 1W
20 Jun 2026Sweden5 — 1W
14 Jun 2026Japan2 — 2D
08 Jun 2026Uzbekistan2 — 1W
03 Jun 2026Algeria0 — 1L
Morocco — recent matches
24 Jun 2026Haiti4 — 2W
19 Jun 2026Scotland1 — 0W
13 Jun 2026Brazil1 — 1D
07 Jun 2026Norway1 — 1D
02 Jun 2026Madagascar4 — 0W
31.05.2017MoroccovsNetherlands1 — 2
Key Players
Netherlands
Virgil van DijkCBLiverpool · 80+ caps · 10 G · Captain
Cody GakpoLWLiverpool · 35+ caps · 14 G
Memphis DepayAMCorinthians · 100+ caps · 50 G
Frenkie de JongCMBarcelona · 60+ caps
Morocco
Achraf HakimiRBPSG · 80+ caps · 11 G
Hakim ZiyechAMAl-Duhail · 60+ caps
Sofyan AmrabatCDMFiorentina · 60+ caps
Youssef En-NesyriSTFenerbahçe · 75+ caps · 25 G
Romain SaïssCBDamac · 70+ caps · Captain
Injuries
Netherlands
None reported
Morocco
None reported
Venue · Context
Stadium: Estadio BBVA
Capacity: 53,500
Altitude: 540m above sea level
Monterrey is among the hottest host cities — daytime kick-offs can exceed 30°C, putting a premium on hydration and squad depth.
Weather: Mid-June: hot and dry, frequently 32°C+ in daytime.