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Panama 01 Croatia
23 Jun · Tue · BMO Field
Our top forecastUnder 2.5 goals
✓ CORRECT

Budimir's intervention rescues Croatia at BMO Field

Croatia breathed life back into their World Cup with a scrappy but vital 1-0 win over Panama at BMO Field, substitute Ante Budimir settling a tight contest after the break. Beaten by England in their opener, Zlatko Dalić's side could not afford a slip, and though they were second best for much of the first half, their greater experience and strength in depth eventually told. The result lifts Croatia to third in Group L with their hopes of reaching the Round of 32 still alive.

This was a long way from Croatia at their fluent best. They laboured for rhythm against a spirited Panama and needed Dalić's decisive substitutions to change the tide. But winning ugly is its own kind of quality, and a team with this much tournament pedigree will care only that they remain in contention.

Panama's brave effort goes unrewarded

Panama, chasing a first World Cup point in their history, were the brighter side early on, carrying a genuine threat and striking the woodwork before half-time, with an offside flag also cutting short a moment of celebration. For a debutant nation against a former finalist, it was a spirited, fearless showing that deserved more. Croatia, disjointed and short of ideas, were relieved to reach the break level, and Dalić acted decisively with his changes. The fresh legs shifted the balance, and Budimir struck in the second half to break Panamanian hearts against the run of the early play. The debutants pushed for an equaliser without success, throwing men forward in the closing stages, while at the other end Croatia substitute Martin Baturina almost added a second in stoppage time, denied by Panama goalkeeper Orlando Mosquera. The visitors held on for a win that flattered them on the balance of play.

Croatia's veterans eye another deep run

For all the imperfections, Croatia's pedigree is undimmed. Finalists in 2018 and third in 2022, Dalić's side are anchored by a seasoned core — captain Luka Modrić still conducting from midfield — that knows how to grind out results when it matters most. Time and again this generation has found a way through difficult nights, leaning on experience, game management and a deep bench when fluency deserts them. A strong set of substitutes and a coach unafraid to use them dragged Croatia through an off-day here. Now they must be considerably sharper on the final matchday to keep a familiar tournament journey going — but they remain alive, and that was all that mattered in Toronto.

Panama on the brink

Defeat leaves Panama on the edge of elimination. The debutants have competed with spirit and organisation across the group but have lacked the final quality to convert encouraging displays into points, and this was the most painful example yet — a performance worthy of reward that brought none. They close against England with Group L poised: England and Ghana on four, Croatia on three, Panama still searching for their first point. Even in likely farewell, there is something to build on for a nation taking its first steps at this level. Our forecast of under 2.5 goals landed in a tight, low-scoring win.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Panama – Croatia Prediction and Betting Tips

Panama national football team logo
Panama
L D W L W
vs
19:00
23 Jun · Tue
Croatia national football team logo
Croatia
L W L L W
Kick-off: 19:00 local (23 Jun) · 23:00 UTC Venue: BMO Field Referee: TBA
Top forecast + 4 supporting tips
5 picks
Top Pick
Total:Under: 2.5 Under 2.5 goals 60% confidence
2.07odds

A tense must-win between two low-scoring sides, with Panama yet to find the net, points to a contained game under 2.5.

Back this tip
X2 62%
Croatia or draw
1.16 odds
Total Team 1 Under: 1.5 66%
Panama under 1.5 goals
1.21 odds
Total:Over: 1.5 58%
Over 1.5 goals
1.22 odds
Handicap 2 : 1 64%
Croatia +1
1.12 odds
Panama and Croatia meet at BMO Field in Toronto in a Group L must-win, both sides pointless after matchday one and the loser facing all-but-certain elimination.

Croatia under pressure

Croatia slipped to a 4-2 defeat against England but still found the net twice, evidence of the quality that remains in an experienced side. On zero points their margin for error is gone, and they know another loss ends their tournament. Expect a more cautious, controlled approach as they look to protect their last realistic lifeline rather than chase the game.

Panama searching for a spark

Panama went down 1-0 to Ghana to a stoppage-time goal and are yet to score at the finals. Tidy without being threatening, they now face a step up in class against opponents who cannot afford to lose either. To survive they must find an edge that was missing first time out, against a defence that will guard its lead carefully.

Our forecast: caution dominates

Two desperate sides in a knockout-in-all-but-name tend to tighten up, and with Panama struggling to score our forecast leans to a low-scoring game: under 2.5 goals reads as the value angle. Around it, the double chance favours Croatia, Panama are tipped to stay under 1.5, the total over 1.5 covers a single breakthrough, and a one-goal handicap reflects Croatia's edge.
Panama — recent matches
17 Jun 2026 Ghana 0 — 1 L
06 Jun 2026 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1 — 1 D
04 Jun 2026 Dominican Republic 4 — 2 W
31 May 2026 Brazil 2 — 6 L
31 Mar 2026 South Africa 2 — 1 W
Croatia — recent matches
17 Jun 2026 England 2 — 4 L
07 Jun 2026 Slovenia 2 — 1 W
02 Jun 2026 Belgium 0 — 2 L
01 Apr 2026 Brazil 1 — 3 L
26 Mar 2026 Colombia 2 — 1 W

Key Players

Panama
Aníbal Godoy CDM San Jose Earthquakes · 100+ caps · Captain
José Fajardo ST CD Plaza Amador · 40+ caps
Adalberto Carrasquilla CM Pumas · 50+ caps
Ismael Díaz ST León · 25+ caps
Croatia
Luka Modrić CM AC Milan · 185+ caps · 27 G · Captain
Mateo Kovačić CM Man City · 100+ caps
Joško Gvardiol CB Man City · 35+ caps
Andrej Kramarić ST Hoffenheim · 100+ caps · 30 G

Injuries

Panama
None reported
Croatia
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: BMO Field
Capacity: 45,000
Toronto's BMO Field, expanded for the tournament, is an open-air ground with mild early-summer conditions that suit a high tempo.
Weather: Mid-June Toronto: mild, ~20–25°C.

Suspensions

Panama
None reported
Croatia
None reported

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