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Colombia 10 Congo DR
23 Jun · Tue · Estadio Akron
Our top forecastUnder 2.5 goals
✓ CORRECT

Muñoz strikes late as Colombia reach the knockouts

Colombia secured their place in the Round of 32 with a hard-earned 1-0 win over DR Congo at Estadio Akron, becoming the seventh nation to qualify. Daniel Muñoz settled a stubborn contest in the 76th minute, finally beating a DR Congo side that had defended heroically for more than an hour. Néstor Lorenzo's team were utterly dominant — 20 shots, two-thirds of possession — but had to be patient against a rearguard inspired by their goalkeeper before Muñoz's late breakthrough sent them through with a game to spare.

It was a performance of control and persistence rather than fluency in front of goal, and one that again showcased the impact of Lorenzo's substitutes. Qualification was no less deserved for the wait it required.

Mpasi's resistance finally broken

For an hour the night belonged to DR Congo goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi, whose eight saves single-handedly kept his side level against a relentless tide. Colombia attacked from every angle — Muñoz turned an early effort into the side-netting, a goal was ruled out, and Mpasi turned away strike after strike, low and high, near and far, to keep his team in the contest. The longer his resistance held, the more anxious the Colombian crowd grew. The breakthrough, when it finally came, owed much to Juan Fernando Quintero, introduced from the bench to steady the tempo for the second match running; his pass freed Muñoz to finish first time in the 76th minute, at last beating the inspired goalkeeper. Luis Díaz was twice denied late on, once for a foul and once for offside, and Jefferson Lerma collected a booking, but Colombia managed the closing stages calmly to seal qualification.

Colombia's talented generation marches on

Qualification rewards a cohesive Colombian campaign built around genuine attacking quality and an increasingly settled identity. With James Rodríguez pulling the strings from midfield and Luis Díaz a constant menace on the flank, Lorenzo has a side capable of troubling anyone in the knockout rounds, and a bench deep enough to change games — as Quintero has now done in back-to-back matches. The willingness to qualify with control rather than flair speaks to a team comfortable in its own skin. Top of Group K on six points, Colombia face Portugal next in a decider for first place, with both nations already assured of progress but plenty of pride and seeding on the line.

DR Congo cling to a thread

For DR Congo, the defeat leaves survival hanging by a thread. Mpasi's heroics merited far more than a losing return, and a competitive campaign — a creditable 1-1 draw with Portugal followed by this narrow loss — leaves them on a single point with everything still to do. They must beat Uzbekistan on the final matchday, and hope for help elsewhere, to keep their hopes alive. There is no shame in their efforts; they have defended with heart and organisation throughout. Group K reads: Colombia qualified on six, Portugal on four, DR Congo on one, and Uzbekistan yet to register. Our forecast of under 2.5 goals landed comfortably.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Colombia – Congo DR Prediction and Betting Tips

Colombia national football team logo
Colombia
W W W L L
vs
20:00
23 Jun · Tue
Congo DR national football team logo
Congo DR
D L D W W
Kick-off: 20:00 local (23 Jun) · 02:00 UTC Venue: Estadio Akron Referee: TBA
Top forecast + 4 supporting tips
5 picks
Top Pick
Total:Under: 2.5 Under 2.5 goals 60% confidence
1.67odds

DR Congo defend deep and content to frustrate; Colombia must be patient, pointing to a contained game under 2.5.

Back this tip
Win 1 60%
Colombia to win
1.55 odds
Total Team 1 Over: 1.5 60%
Colombia over 1.5 goals
1.85 odds
1X 80%
Colombia or draw
1.16 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 66%
DR Congo under 1.5 goals
1.12 odds
Colombia and DR Congo meet at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara in a Group K matchday-two clash with first place on the line and very different routes into it.

Colombia chasing top spot

Colombia were ruthless in a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan and sit top of Group K, confident and clinical. They arrive with no major absentees reported and a clear aim: a win would all but book their place in the next round. The cutting edge they showed on matchday one makes them firm favourites, even against a side determined to make life difficult.

DR Congo stubborn and dangerous

DR Congo earned a historic 1-1 draw with Portugal, defending with discipline and carrying a genuine threat on the counter. They also kept a clean sheet in a goalless result against Denmark in pre-tournament preparation, underlining a side built on defensive solidity. On one point their fate remains in their own hands, and they will be content to sit deep, frustrate the leaders and strike on the break.

Our forecast: a tight, low-scoring affair

With one side built to stifle and the other facing a packed defence, our forecast leans to a cagey game: under 2.5 goals reads as the value angle rather than backing a goal rush. Around it, a Colombia win reflects their quality, the leaders to score over 1.5 fits their threat, the double chance covers their superiority, and DR Congo are tipped to stay under 1.5 at the other end.
Colombia — recent matches
18 Jun 2026 Uzbekistan 3 — 1 W
07 Jun 2026 Jordan 2 — 0 W
01 Jun 2026 Costa Rica 3 — 1 W
29 Mar 2026 France 1 — 3 L
26 Mar 2026 Croatia 1 — 2 L
Congo DR — recent matches
17 Jun 2026 Portugal 1 — 1 D
09 Jun 2026 Chile 1 — 2 L
03 Jun 2026 Denmark 0 — 0 D
31 Mar 2026 Jamaica 1 — 0 W
25 Mar 2026 Bermuda 2 — 0 W

Key Players

Colombia
James Rodríguez AM Club León · 110+ caps · 30 G · Captain
Luis Díaz LW Liverpool · 50+ caps · 14 G
Jhon Durán ST Al-Nassr · 15+ caps
Daniel Muñoz RB Crystal Palace · 40+ caps
Congo DR
Chancel Mbemba CB Lille · 80+ caps · Captain
Cédric Bakambu ST Real Betis · 45+ caps · 19 G
Yoane Wissa LW Brentford · 25+ caps
Théo Bongonda RW Spartak Moscow · 30+ caps

Injuries

Colombia
None reported
Congo DR
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Estadio Akron
Capacity: 49,850
Altitude: 1566m above sea level ⚠️ Key factor
Guadalajara sits at roughly 1,560m, so altitude is a real factor — sea-level sides tend to fade late and the open bowl offers little shade.
Weather: Mid-June: warm, ~24–28°C, humid with evening rain risk.

Suspensions

Colombia
None reported
Congo DR
None reported

Other Group K matches

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