Spain edge Iberian derby as subs settle it late

Spain beat Portugal 1-0 in a tense Iberian derby at AT&T Stadium, a stoppage-time winner from substitute Mikel Merino sending them into the quarter-finals. It was Spain's first World Cup knockout win since their 2010 triumph — a sign the favourites are finding their big-game form at the right time.

How it unfolded: a stalemate broken late

For long spells it was the chess match expected, two disciplined sides cancelling out, with Lamine Yamal a threat but Portugal well organised. The breakthrough came deep into stoppage time from the bench: substitute Mikel Merino settled it in the 91st minute, finishing low past Diogo Costa after fellow substitute Ferran Torres played him in — de la Fuente's changes vindicated.

Context: mojo restored, an era closing

Ending a 16-year wait for a knockout win is a big psychological step for Spain, whose sixth successive clean sheet set a World Cup record, Unai Simon again untroubled. For Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo it was a subdued farewell: in what is likely his final World Cup, the 41-year-old was substituted before the end, his tournament closing quietly. He departs as one of the game's greatest goalscorers.

The next step: Spain meet Belgium

Spain advance to a quarter-final with Belgium on July 10 at SoFi Stadium. Our forecast of Spain to avoid defeat landed in a hard-fought 1-0 derby win.