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Egypt 11 Iran
26 Jun · Fri · Lumen Field
Our top forecastUnder 2.5 goals
✓ CORRECT

VAR denies Iran as Egypt secure the point they needed

Egypt and Iran drew 1-1 in a dramatic contest at Lumen Field in Seattle, a late VAR intervention overturning an Iran winner and helping Egypt into the knockout rounds. Egypt's opener was cancelled out by Iran, and the defining twist came when a stoppage-time strike for Iran was disallowed after a video review. The point was enough to send Egypt through, while Iran were left to lament the finest of margins.

How it unfolded: an Egypt opener and a disallowed winner

Egypt edged ahead when they opened the scoring, before Iran levelled in a tense, see-saw encounter. Iran thought they had won it late on through Khalilzadeh, only for VAR to rule the goal out for an infringement in the build-up — a cruel blow for a side that had given everything. Egypt held firm to claim the draw that secured their progress and the place in the knockouts their campaign deserved.

Context: composure and the finest of margins

Egypt's defining quality here was composure under pressure, absorbing a late onslaught and taking the point that mattered in the qualification picture. The Pharaohs have built their campaign on organisation and resilience, and here they showed the nerve to survive a nervous finish. Iran will feel aggrieved at a disallowed winner, but a tight, well-organised side ultimately fell on the wrong side of the margins, their exit — if confirmed by the best-third reckoning — feeling harsh given how little separated the teams.

The table: Belgium top, Egypt through second

Group G ended with Belgium top on five points (GD plus four) after their big win over New Zealand, Egypt second on five (GD plus two), Iran third on three in best-third contention, and New Zealand eliminated at the bottom. Egypt advance to the Round of 32. Our forecast of under 2.5 goals landed in a tense 1-1 draw, as a cautious, tightly-contested decider unfolded just as the numbers anticipated.

What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Egypt – Iran Prediction and Betting Tips

Egypt national football team logo
Egypt
W D L W D
vs
20:00
26 Jun · Fri
Iran national football team logo
Iran
D D D W W
Kick-off: 20:00 local (26 Jun) · 03:00 UTC Venue: Lumen Field Referee: S. Marciniak
Top forecast + 4 supporting tips
5 picks
Top Pick
Total:Under: 2.5 Under 2.5 goals 60% confidence
1.48odds

A cautious Egypt defending the point they need against a tight Iran side points to a tense, low-scoring decider under 2.5 goals.

Back this tip
1X 64%
Egypt or draw
1.30 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 66%
Iran under 1.5 goals
1.23 odds
Total Team 1 Over: 0.5 68%
Egypt to score
1.37 odds
Total:Under: 2.0 58%
Under 2.0 goals
1.89 odds
Egypt and Iran meet at Lumen Field in a Group G finale where a single point would send the hosts through as group winners, and where all four teams remain in contention with both Group G fixtures kicking off at the same time.

Egypt's historic high

Egypt arrive on four points and top of the group after a stirring 3-1 comeback win over New Zealand — their first World Cup victory in 92 years, since their tournament debut back in 1934. After opening with a 1-1 draw against Belgium, that result transformed their campaign and put qualification firmly in their own hands. A draw against Iran would confirm their place in the knockout stage regardless of events elsewhere. Buoyant, organised and in control of their own fate, they will fancy their chances in front of a charged Seattle crowd. They arrive with no major absentees reported.

Iran must win

Iran sit on two points after a 2-2 draw with New Zealand and a hard-earned goalless stalemate with Belgium, a night in which their veteran goalkeeper produced seven saves to keep them in the tournament. Only a victory guarantees their progress, which means taking the game to an Egypt side that needs only a point — a difficult balance between ambition and the risk of leaving gaps at the back against opponents happy to sit in.

Our forecast: a tense, low-scoring decider

With Egypt content to defend the draw they need and Iran wary of overcommitting, our forecast leans low: under 2.5 goals reads as the value angle in what shapes as a cagey, nervous contest. Around it, Egypt to avoid defeat reflects their commanding position, Iran are tipped to stay under 1.5 given their modest return in front of goal, and Egypt are backed to score on the counter.
Egypt — recent matches
22 Jun 2026 New Zealand 3 — 1 W
15 Jun 2026 Belgium 1 — 1 D
06 Jun 2026 Brazil 1 — 2 L
28 May 2026 Russia 1 — 0 W
31 Mar 2026 Spain 0 — 0 D
Iran — recent matches
21 Jun 2026 Belgium 0 — 0 D
16 Jun 2026 New Zealand 2 — 2 D
11 Jun 2026 Grenada 0 — 0 D
04 Jun 2026 Mali 2 — 0 W
29 May 2026 Gambia 3 — 1 W

Squad Availability

Injured · Suspended

Egypt

Hossam Abdelmaguid

Iran

No reported absences

Key Players

Egypt
Mohamed Salah RW Liverpool · 100+ caps · 55 G · Captain
Omar Marmoush ST Man City · 30+ caps · 12 G
Mostafa Mohamed ST Nantes · 30+ caps
Mohamed Elneny CM Al-Jazira · 100+ caps
Iran
Mehdi Taremi ST Inter Milan · 90+ caps · 50 G
Sardar Azmoun ST Shabab Al-Ahli · 80+ caps · 50 G
Alireza Jahanbakhsh RW Heerenveen · 80+ caps
Ehsan Hajsafi LB AEK Athens · 130+ caps · Captain

Injuries

Egypt
None reported
Iran
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: Lumen Field
Capacity: 69,000
Seattle's Lumen Field is open-air with a famously loud crowd; the mild Pacific-Northwest climate keeps conditions fresh.
Weather: Mid-June Seattle: mild, ~18–23°C.

Suspensions

Egypt
None reported
Iran
None reported

Other Group G matches

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