South Africa
0–1
Canada
Canada reached the Round of 16 for the first time in their history, Stephen Eustaquio's stoppage-time strike breaking a goalless deadlock against South Africa at SoFi Stadium in the tournament's opening knockout tie. In a match that was the first-ever World Cup knockout game for both nations, a tense defensive battle was settled at the very last by a moment of quality, sending Jesse Marsch's 'Canadian heroes' into uncharted territory and ending a resilient South African campaign.
For ninety minutes South Africa defended superbly, goalkeeper Ronwen Williams making several key saves and a back line marshalled by the composed Mbokazi frustrating Canada at every turn. Canada were boosted on 75 minutes by the introduction of captain Alphonso Davies, his first appearance of the tournament after a hamstring injury kept him out of the group stage. The deadlock finally broke in the 95th minute when Eustaquio struck a precise effort from the edge of the box to beat Williams and spark wild celebrations.
The history came thick and fast. Canada had never reached a World Cup knockout stage, and Eustaquio's career-defining goal — from the LAFC midfielder, scored in his club city of Los Angeles — gave it a fairytale edge. Canada also became the first host nation to play a World Cup match outside its own country, the tie held at SoFi Stadium after they finished second in Group B. The return of the fit-again Davies added another lift, while South Africa, in their own first-ever knockout match, could not find the goal their defensive effort deserved.
Canada advance to the Round of 16, where the winner of Netherlands against Morocco awaits on July 4 at NRG Stadium in Houston. Marsch's side, with Davies back and belief surging, roll on as one of the tournament's great stories, while South Africa exit with pride intact after a campaign built on organisation and spirit. Our forecast of Canada to avoid defeat landed as the favourites edged a tight, low-scoring tie exactly as anticipated.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 |  South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 |  South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
Canada hold the edge in quality and need only avoid a 90-minute defeat to reach extra time as favourites; South Africa's resilience may force a draw, but a Bafana win is the least likely result.
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