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Mexico 20 Ecuador
01 Jul · Wed · Estadio Banorte
Our top forecastMexico or draw
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Mexico use Azteca altitude to see off Ecuador

Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0 at the Estadio Azteca, first-half goals from Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez carrying the hosts into the Round of 16. At 2,240 metres above sea level, the Azteca's altitude taxes visiting legs and hands acclimatised Mexico a real edge — and the hosts, who have never lost a World Cup match at the stadium, controlled throughout after becoming the first Mexican side to win all three group games.

How it unfolded: an early Mexican double

Julian Quinones opened the scoring on 22 minutes with a sharp finish, and Raul Jimenez doubled the lead on 31 to put Mexico in command inside the opening half-hour. Two up early, the hosts managed the game with composure, using the conditions to see out a comfortable win. Ecuador, impressive in the group stage, struggled to build pressure in the thin air.

Context: a fortress at altitude

The Azteca's 2,240-metre altitude was again decisive — one of the game's most demanding venues, where Mexico's familiarity tells. Ecuador, who had beaten Germany in the group, could not cope on the day. For Mexico the milestones mount: a first perfect group stage now followed by a knockout win, at their spiritual home.

The next step: Mexico await England or DR Congo

Mexico advance to face the winner of England against DR Congo on July 5; Ecuador are eliminated. Our forecast of under 2.5 goals landed in a controlled 2-0 win, as the hosts used the Azteca altitude to manage the contest exactly as the numbers suggested.

Group A standings

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Mexico3300+69
2South Africa3111-14
3South Korea3102-13
What we predicted before the match
🌍 FIFA World Cup · World

Mexico – Ecuador Prediction and Betting Tips

Mexico national football team logo
Mexico
W W W W W
vs
01:00
01 Jul · Wed
Ecuador national football team logo
Ecuador
W D L W W
Kick-off: 01:00 local (1 Jul) · 01:00 UTC Venue: Estadio Banorte Referee: S. Vincic
Top forecast + 3 supporting tips
4 picks
Top Pick
1X Mexico or draw 70% confidence
1.29odds

Mexico's home advantage and the altitude edge make them favourites to avoid a 90-minute defeat; Ecuador's organisation could force a draw, but the double chance is the measured play.

Back this tip
Total:Under: 2.5 58%
Under 2.5 goals
1.53 odds
Win 1 50%
Mexico to win
2.21 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 60%
Ecuador under 1.5 goals
1.19 odds
This Round of 32 tie at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City turns on one defining factor: altitude. At over 2,200 metres, the thin Mexico City air tires visiting teams and hands the hosts a real edge. Group A winners Mexico, backed by a fervent home crowd under Javier Aguirre, take on an Ecuador side that reached the knockouts as a best third-placed team built on Sebastian Beccacece's defensive discipline. With a Round of 16 place on the line and a draw sending the tie to extra time, Mexico are favourites. Our forecast favours Mexico to avoid defeat in a contained, low-scoring contest shaped by the conditions.
Mexico — recent matches
25 Jun 2026 Czechia 3 — 0 W
19 Jun 2026 South Korea 1 — 0 W
11 Jun 2026 South Africa 2 — 0 W
05 Jun 2026 Serbia 5 — 1 W
31 May 2026 Australia 1 — 0 W
Ecuador — recent matches
25 Jun 2026 Germany 2 — 1 W
21 Jun 2026 Curaçao 0 — 0 D
14 Jun 2026 Ivory Coast 0 — 1 L
07 Jun 2026 Guatemala 3 — 0 W
31 May 2026 Saudi Arabia 2 — 1 W
15.10.2025 Mexico vs Ecuador 1 — 1
01.07.2024 Mexico vs Ecuador 0 — 0
05.06.2022 Mexico vs Ecuador 0 — 0
28.10.2021 Mexico vs Ecuador 2 — 3
09.06.2019 Mexico vs Ecuador 3 — 2

Key Players

Mexico
Edson Álvarez CDM West Ham · 65+ caps
Hirving Lozano LW PSV · 70+ caps · 18 G
Santiago Giménez ST AC Milan · 30+ caps · 9 G
Luis Romo CM Cruz Azul · 35+ caps
Ecuador
Moisés Caicedo CDM Chelsea · 40+ caps
Enner Valencia ST Inter Miami · 90+ caps · 41 G · Captain
Pervis Estupiñán LB Brighton · 35+ caps
Piero Hincapié CB Leverkusen · 30+ caps

Injuries

Mexico
Diego Lainez Knee injury Doubtful
Ecuador
None reported

Suspensions

Mexico
None reported
Ecuador
None reported

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